Kelly criterion horse racing. KELLY CRITERION | Ed Thorp | Optimal Position Sizing For Stock TradingThe Kelly Criterion calculation was created by Ed Thorp and made specifically to beat t. Kelly criterion horse racing

 
 KELLY CRITERION | Ed Thorp | Optimal Position Sizing For Stock TradingThe Kelly Criterion calculation was created by Ed Thorp and made specifically to beat tKelly criterion horse racing  9st 8lbs

Venetia Williams. Ice Hockey Tips. Home; Sectional Times; Hugh Taylor v The Actuary; Subscription Options; Feedback; Using The Actuary Speed Handicap Ratings;. Horse Racing Tips: Bailey to score with Gwen in Thursday 14/1 double Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Daryl Carter's Tips: Hughes can get the best out of McCain's unexposed chaserHorse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. LEXINGTON, Ky. He started life as data analyst in the digital marketing field before find his true calling in the world of Football and Horse Racing Betting. Racing Results & Replays. To be honest I have been successfully using the simple/naïve Kelly Criterion for years and haven’t bothered looking anywhere else. Defining what race reading is. Granny B achieved a fair level of form in six starts as a two-year-old, producing her best effort when filling the runner-up spot in a Pontefract maiden last July. 8. Jun 16, 2023 By Rebecca Martin Multiple strategies in the sports betting world claim to help bettors maximize their profits and manage their banks effectively. Today’s Betting Tips. The ultimate value betting calculator. 00) and should not include any additional symbols such. “The Las Vegas Grand Prix was the most bet F1 event. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. 10. 55) on a specific spread or total priced at -110 (american odds). Cheltenham NAP - 16:00 - Back Brechin Castle. Jacot. By three laps. Ascot - Saturday 15:40 - Back Simca Mille. Kelly Staking is in its simplest form, your edge divided by the fractional price your’re backing at. B=2-1=1. "16", "name" => "Horse Racing". Kelly, Jr in 1956. If a fully Kelly stake was 8%, then the half-, quarter- and eighth-Kelly stakes would be 4%, 2% and 1% respectively. The Kelly Criterion helps you calculate the optimal amount you should wager when there is a difference between the true odds and the given odds at the. 00. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. Betfair International Plc is licensed and regulated by the . View the Betslip. It allowed gamblers to increase the size of their winnings over a long period of time. If the downside-case loss is less than 100%, as in the scenario above, a different Kelly formula is required: Kelly % = W/A – (1 – W)/B , where W is the win probability, B is the profit in the event of a win (20%), and A is the potential loss. We define the problem setting, the formal investment. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race; How to use Timeform Ratings;Football. The Real Kelly) discussed in this @Pinnacle article The Real Kelly. 33). Daily Racing Multiple. The Kelly Criterion is a strategy that can be used in several. Mode 2: You know the sharp bookmaker odds and soft bookmaker odds. The Kelly criterion, which was first published in 1956, was soon adopted by gamblers who were able to use the formula for horse racing. No opt. The first of these is the probability of a positive outcome, or a winning trade. 2 Kelly gambling In Kelly gambling, we place a xed fraction of our total wealth (assumed positive) on nbets. widespread, is the Kelly criterion (Kelly Jr, 1956), also known as the geometric mean policy, maximizing the expected long-term growth of wealth. As much as anything, it is the prospect of Quickthorn getting the lead to himself that is just as attractive as the drop in class that the race represents. 1) Regardless of what you make the chance of the horse, 60%, 50%, 40% , 30% if the odds on offer are 4/1 your stake is 20 points. This means that the optimal size of your bet is 10% of your bankroll. Before addressing your investment strategy, learn about the Kelly criterion and see if it’s a fit for you. On 40. Estimation: 0,25 (25 %) ( (5,00 x 0,25) - 1) / (5,00-1) = 0,0625. Get a better job. Horse Racing Tips: Rhys Williams fancies 50/1 Beauty to spring a surprise at Warwick; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Horse Racing Tips: Patrick right up our street for Dundalk 54/1 Wednesday doubleWhen making crucial sports betting decisions, it is not just important to find the right sports events to bet on but to also have an appropriate strategy to divide or manage your financial portfolio. Highfield Princess enjoyed remarkable success last. xh is the amount we will wager on horse h, Oh is the decimal payout odds for horse h, which we assume are fixed, and w is our current wealth. Kelly Criterion – Background. f = 0. 2) From another angle. Let us say that your horse (Let us call him Lucky Punter) gets 4/1 odds (or 5. The Kelly Criterion implies you should bet 22. Kelly, Jr in 1956. provide sports betting tips, news and analysis for Australian punters. Glenn, and was bred in by . You are here: Home >> Beginner’s Guide >> The Kelly Criterion Once a decision is has been made to wager money on an event, the next decision is to choose how much of your account balance to wager. Eat healthy. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. The calculator will tell you whether or not you should be betting and how much to stake. ) Of course, this begs the question: Why use the Kelly Criterion at all?The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. B = the Decimal odds -1 P = the probability of success Q = the probability of failure (i. The Kelly Criterion Model is a fascinating model that takes little knowledge of sports to be successful if executed properly. Vanessa Ryle, Tony Calvin Kevin Blake, Dan Barber and Barry Orr discussed all five glorious days of racing and covered everything you need to know from Tuesday's starting stalls to the finish line. 4:00 min read. Racing. Soon after the paper was published the gambling community somehow came across it and found that it had potential as a perfect betting system for horse racing. The best staking plan debate. The Kelly Criterion is comprised of two basic components. Back Test your. It means your implied probability is 0. Wednesday - Windsor Castle: Back Barnwell Boy. WITH KELLY. I think he was right. Kelly Criterion recommend risking 6% of your. Timeform Radio Tips on Betfair. These two factors are then input into the Kelly Criterion equation. 10. 80. The Kelly Criterion was. The standard kelly betting is 1. Premier League. Rugby World Cup Quick Hits: England to finish on high with Argentina win. 45) – 0. Because of its theoretical advances in anticipating events and avoiding risks, the application of the Kelly Criterion in gambling spreads very quickly, such as the poker game blackjack in casinos and the popular horse racing and greyhound racing in Europe. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula that is used to take optimally sized bets and grow your capital at the maximum rate possible. Kelly % = W-[(1-W)/R] Where: W = Winning. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. If you’re looking to maximize investment returns, perhaps you should think like a gambler. It just happens to coincide with log-utility. k. 2023 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to 1pt stake (0. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. Football. In horse racing, this is based on the player's own handicapping of the race. Create your own Horse and Greyhound Selection Systems in TBM by using the built in System Builder tool – Selection Hunter. The formula is as follows: f = the fraction of the bankroll to bet. The Kelly bet size is found by maximizing the expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the expected geometric growth rate. Note that if the formula is absolutely strictly applied, one would literally never make an. scientific gambling method ), is an effective strategy in every sense of the word. One of the easiest mistakes to make. Current Yearly P/L. She slips back. Horse Betting 101 Edit. It was only after later that the formula was applied to investing. Kelly Criterion was developed in 1956 by John L. Use this if you have a crystal ball that tells you the true probabilities. The Kelly criterion was used by horse racing gamblers in the late 1950s. 0 (100%), but if you do not want to wager the full. Featured Football. When writing, prolific three-year-old Shaquille is set to go off the shortest-priced favourite for this race in the last ten years. Racing Results & Replays. L. Team2 wins. Kelly Criterion And Asset Management. Horse Racing Tips. 0) than a 5% edge at 1/3 (1. Of course, the Kelly has also been adapted for other "bets," including blackjack. * f* is the fraction of the current bankroll to wager; * b is the odds received on the wager; * p is the probability of winning; * q is the probability of losing, which is 1 − p. 5 Ways to Grow Your Bankroll in 2019! By Ray Wallin. The best staking plan debate. That, in a nutshell, is how the Kelly Criterion works. Aidan O'Brien's unbeaten River Tiber 9/43. at Bell Labs, is a strategy for the optimal sizing of bets in the repeated bets scenario in his seminal paper¹. Kelly Criterion mathematical equation takes into account your bankroll, your own calculated winning probability of the outcome you are betting on, and the odds available from the bookmaker. This is of paramount importance. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. Kelly betting systems are ones that use the Kelly criterion. Here at Betting. Kelly’s Criterion also assumes that you can start again if your entire bankroll is lost . Read the best French Horse Racing Tips here today. Kelly Criterion in detail Introduction; Big-O and little-o; Average Rate of Return;. The worksheet tracks your bets and provides in-depth performance data as well as a profit graph. while reducing volatility. 30 June 2010. You have an employee stationed at the local racetrack. Suppose you are betting on a horse race event at the Cheltenham Hurdle, and the odds offered for your horse in a race is 5. Horse Racing Tips: Let's have a disco in Wales with Ffos Las Sunday double; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Auteuil Racing Tips: Native's stamina the key to first Grade 1 success; Horse Racing. 04. This project is a fork (offshoot) of the standard version (v2. In another example, you may have a perceived edge of 55% (0. 8. Put simply, the. Tony McFadden. Read the article Kelly criterion and fractional Kelly strategy for non-mutually exclusive bets on R Discovery, your go-to avenue for effective literature search. There are n horses in the race, and the probability of horse h winning is πh. 1 day ago · Featured Horse Racing. When we bet the amount that this formula indicates, we say that we are using the full Kelly Criterion . While this was formulated around table games, it is a concept that can be. This is due to the requirement that the gambler commits to a specific outcome of the team game. Spanish LaLiga. [Read more…] about The Kelly Criterion Staking Method Explained. Kelly described the optimal strategy for a single horse and gave an incomplete solution. Racing. It's free to sign up and bid on jobs. 40)- 0. Kelly betting or proportional betting is an application of information theory to investing and gambling. 60 to get 0. Horse Racing Tips. Kelly. Six-year-olds have won 11 of the 17 renewals which is clearly, a significant trend. Discover. 2. Multiples 2021 to present: +20. we will be breaking down everything you need to know about the Kelly criterion betting system and how you can use it to enhance your betting system and strat. Rugby Union Tips. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ;. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non-mutually exclusive bets. You think the horse has 50% of winning. She is currently rated 94 and 6/1 6. K. He was sired by Sebring out of the Bite The Bullet mare Mica's Pride. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Horse Racing Tips: Lou to give us a gift in Thursday 13/1 Newcastle double ; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Tony Calvin Antepost Tips: Take a chance on 20/1 Zhiguli at Ascot this Saturday. Rugby World Cup Final. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. Odds: 5,00. The Kelly Criterion is designed for value betting systems. If you want to set up a spreadsheet to calculate this for you, the spreadsheet would look like this:Abstract: We investigate the most popular approaches to the problem of sports betting investment based on modern portfolio theory and the Kelly criterion. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. A race involves M horses, and is described by a normalized vector of winning probabilities p, an inverse-odds vector r and a gambler strategy b. Wanees has the right sort of profile for this race and. This post is Part 2 of a series on the Kelly criterion and its application to sports betting. Correspondence Address: Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. This value should be in decimal format (e. Betting Strategies For Horse Racing Part 2: Kelly Criterion. Licence Number: MGA/CL3/454/2008 17th March 2015, Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. Named after its inventor, John L. Staking and the Kelly Criterion; Horse Racing Probability Advice; How to read a Horse race;Criterion is a 12 year old horse that was born in 2011 and raced from 2013 to 2016. 4 (40% chance of failure). Netherlands v Republic of Ireland: Both teams to score as ROI promise to have a go. What this means is that you should wager 10 units (or 10% of your bankroll) on this coin toss. Kelly Criterion Sports Betting Strategy. Fractional Kelly betting The recommended Kelly criterion stake will be multiplied by this value. Kevin Blake is a horse racing pundit who works with ITV Racing, Sky Sports Racing and At The Races, as well as writing his regular Betting. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. Get a completely free horse racing multiple bet and horse racing tips from Tony Calvin and more plus expert insight from Paul Nicholls and Ryan Moore. Kelly Criterion. The Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that helps investors and gamblers calculate what percentage of their money they should allocate to each. For example: I would like to bet at 20 matches what are playing at the same time. Now, if we return to the figures we already provided, the equation will look like this: ( (2 x 0. Follow the Timeform Tips daily on Betfair. It was believed earlier that winning a bet is. Determine whether. There are two basic components to the Kelly Criterion. Generally, in gambling scenarios (and some investing scenarios), the Kelly strategy will do better than any other strategy in the long run. This value should be a number between 0 and 100. 6 hours ago · He won over 7f from a mark of 73, but looked ahead of that mark with a dead straightforward performance. Here is the Formula: f*= (bp-q)/b. A horse doesn't have to have won last time out but it's significant if that horse ran well enough in either a good staying handicap chase or over this course and distance. This value should be in decimal format (e. This paper examines how the Kelly criterion, a strategy for maximizing the expected log-growth of capital through informed betting, can be applied to non. g. e. The Kelly criterion is a mathematical formula relating to the long-term growth of capital developed by John L. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. Just as it is for sports bettors, poker players or horse racing bettors, following a practical money management plan is one of those things. This has been applied to various games, including horse racing. The most popular methodology for determining the optimal wager size is the Kelly Criterion. The formula was developed by Kelly while working at the AT&T Bell. Such an outcome may apply to blackjack and horse racing, but rarely to capital markets investments. 40) / 1. The first is attributing probability to a positive outcome of a selected bet and the second is a win-loss calculation. Therefore the Kelly Criterion would recommend you bet 4%. 60 – 0. You need to input the probability (according to your own assessment) that your selection will win. 5 decimally), the equation gives you (((40*2. However, it can be complicated to use if you are not used to it. KELLY CRITERION | Ed Thorp | Optimal Position Sizing For Stock TradingThe Kelly Criterion calculation was created by Ed Thorp and made specifically to beat t. The Kelly criterion is a useful tool for making informed decisions about how to allocate capital when betting on horse races, particularly when considering a single type of bet (Benter 1994) -most. 10 Ideas for Trifecta Profits (Part 1) The late Don Scott once wrote that the best form of exotic betting is the trifecta. You are a corrupt telegraph operator, providing a ‘private wire’ service that transmits messages reporting horse racing results to anyone who can afford to pay you. With less than a week to go until this year's Cheltenham Festival, we caught up with. Using the Kelly Criterion formula, the bettor would calculate the optimal bet size as follows: f = (0. Any horse racing system must have a money management component built in. The Kelly Criterion is a recognized money management system used extensively in horse and sports betting, and in the stock market. 2022 Daily Racing Multiple Column singles to. Cheltenham Festival: Expert Betting Advice & Predictions for the 2023 Cheltenham: Cheltenham Races Tips Cheltenham Betting Offers Horse Racing Expert Tips & Advice. At some point, the newest Kelly Standards calculator, while you are exact together with your examined probability is always to improve your well worth and funds over an extended-identity several months. The Kelly criterion is a money-management formula of passionate interest (and controversy) to card players, sports bettors, investors, hedge fund managers, and economists. Heva Rose had some fairly useful form over hurdles and fences when trained in France but she has failed to make an impact over hurdles since joining. However, for any of those outcomes, there are only two outcomes to the gambler's bankroll: The gambler bet on the correct outcome of the team game. distributions are fi xed in advance. Mode 1: You know the true probability of an outcome and the soft bookmaker odds. The true probability may lie between 40% and 60%, or even 20% and 80%. 2) From another angle. However, you determine after your analysis that Horse A has a 25% chance of winning. This type of situation is common in horse racing, where multiple types of bets are available for a. Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > Handicapper's Corner: Kelly CriterionThe Kelly Criterion is a mathematical formula that can be used to determine the optimal amount of money to bet on an event based on the bettor’s perceived edge or advantage. It is a simple formula that calculates the proportion of your balance to wager on a particular gamble. . Kelly Criterion General Discussion : Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > General Discussion: Kelly Criterion. So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. How to Use the Kelly Criterion Calculator. Many pro-bettors around the world recommend the use of the Kelly Criterion or a modified version of it. In Section 2 we define the concept of a betting strategy. “The Las Vegas Grand Prix was the most bet F1 event. 4 feet, with elite performers such as Frankel, Sea The Stars and. 25 so an edge of 25% divided by 1. This post provides a simple derivation of the Kelly criterion, which will hopefully provide additional insight. In this case: P= 0. If you bet more than 10%, you’re taking on too much risk. Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited which is. The simplified Kelly Criterion has some potential flaws and can give some head-scratching results which are explained in the article above. Getting staking right is key to profitable punting. This means that you. input 0. 45)/ (2. Load more library articles. In his book Commonsense Betting, which is arguably the finest book written on the betting and the mathematics of horse-racing, US author Dick Mitchell wrote about various staking plans. Kelly Criterion User Name: Remember Me? Password: Google Site Search: Get RDSS: Sartin Library: RDSS FAQs: Conduct: Register: Site FAQ: Members List: Today's Posts: Search: General Discussion General Horse Racing DiscussionRespected under a 4 lb penalty. Racing Results & Replays. 00 in decimal odds). This post provides an introduction. 45)/ (2. 0. Find out who the traders are afraid of this Festival. . The Kelly Criterion – also known as the Kelly Strategy or Kelly Staking Plan – takes elements from fixed, percentage and progressive staking to create somewhat of a hybrid staking plan. Betfair is where you can get the best horse racing tips for meetings in the UK, Ireland and. However, in order to reach that conclusion, we must wager with a flat betting plan for a large number of bets. L. I should warn an edge like that would require some serious inside info. Whenever the question of optimal betting size pops up in handicapping or money management books, you usually see Kelly. The second is the total win loss ratio, which is made up of the total number of winning trades divided by the total number of losing trades. Here are the steps that you have to follow in order to use our Kelly Criterion Calculator: Add your current betting balance in the cell called “Current Betting Balance”. Horse Racing Tips: Moon to shine at Exeter in Monday 18/1 double ;. . So if your getting 6/4 on an 1/1 shot your edge is 2. 60 x 1. This isn't a strong nursery and. Charlie Deutsch. The Kelly Criterion was first published in 1956 by John L. For any other Betfair-related queries, head to customer support. John Kelly developed his formula whilst working at AT&T’s Bell Laboratory when attempting to solve their long-distance signal noise issues. Part of Kelly's insight was to have the gambler maximize the expectation of the logarithm of his capital, rather than the expected profit from each bet. Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage. Brookhouse. He was trained by David Hayes and Tom Dabernig and raced for Sir Owen G. 60 x 1. T&Cs apply. 000. Venera. The formula is therefore suggesting that 20% of the portfolio be stake 20% of your bankroll. It is only by minimizing losses and maximizing wins that you can hope to become a profitable bettor. 66% of your bank. “Fortune’s Formula” is the Kelly Criterion from J. All the more recently, the strategy has seen a renaissance, in response to claims that unbelievable investors Warren Buffett and. , -200 odds and shorter) because the Kelly Calculator struggles with “sure things. Then, you divide 0. Italian Serie A. In sports betting, this formula is used to decide the optimal amount of money to place in a bet. Through the use of the Kelly Criterion gamblers were able to maximize their bankrolls over the long term. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. It was developed in 1956 by John Larry Kelly Jr. This is how the simplified Kelly looks. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. Now live in 25 states, this. Lose weight. Keep in mind that this is a high percentage and the ideal amount you should bet is 3% of your bankroll or less. For standard Kelly betting, set the fractional Kelly betting value to 1. 8 – 0. What is the Kelly Criterion formula? The basic Kelly Criterion formula is: (bp-q)/b. Using the Kelly Calculator The Kelly criterion, developed by John L. Remember that value betting is a long term strategy requiring many, many bets to achieve a statistically significant outcome. 80 and subtract 0. 00 x 0. This is Kellys Equation. Finally, in x7 we give some numerical examples to illustrate the methods. In particular, it maximizes the expected growth rate and the. g. Without the right knowledge and strategy on how much to wager on a particular event, you could easily plunge yourself into a pit of losses. Following the Kelly criterion, the process of betting is closely connected to information theory (K elly Jr, 1956). Kelly described. In order to use it, your selection process must be able to identify the expected probability of your horse winning. With sports betting, however, you may feel the probability of an outcome is 50%, but you do not know that with certainty. One was the 'square root' plan whereby a base bet is established, say $20, and each bet you place is $20 plus the square root of any. The second is the approach of Markowitz’s Modern portfolio. Kelly says that his edge is $0. This concept goes back to the days of horse racing, where there were. horse racing, basketball, and football. Featured Horse Racing. To see the Kelly formula in action, let’s take an example of a football match where the odds available on the draw are 3. And at Caesars, the race took the checkers from NASCAR, which has leaned hard into sports betting as a fan-engagement vehicle. Search for jobs related to Kelly criterion calculator horse racing or hire on the world's largest freelancing marketplace with 22m+ jobs. com. Under few conditions, using Monte Carlo simulations with different scenarios we prove that the Kelly criterion beats any other approach in many aspects. 5/2. WITH KELLY. ” Kelly Multiplier The Kelly Criterion: A mathematical formula relating to the long-term growth of capital developed by John Larry Kelly Jr. Patrick Weaver: "Bluestocking was beaten in a photo when favourite for a Listed race at Newbury. It was first repurposed as a formula to identify an optimal betting system in horse racing. Before addressing your investment strategy, learn about the Kelly criterion and see if it’s a fit for you. Of course, the bracket has to be reduced in this year's race because of a lack of strength and depth. Jacot+1. 1. The paper is structured as follows. function is to create the right balance between risk and reward. It was developed in 1956 by John Larry Kelly Jr. The calculator will tell you whether or not you should be betting and how much to stake. 14% July = -7. An AT&T’s Bell Lab scientist and researcher, John Larry Kelly Jr. Sleep more. 55×1-0. Betfair, e-mail Copy@betfair. If I apply the Kelly Criterion based upon the historical odds of that factor 7/2, instead of true post odds, is that a valid way of applying Kelly? Furthermore, I created an Excel Spreadsheet to analyze my results, and based upon my Kelly formula, it says that I can bet 9. These are bets where there is no one-to-one correspondence between the bets and the possible outcomes of the game. e. The underlying purpose of the reviewed modifications is to mitigate the. Patrick Weaver says: "Willie Mullins' Vauban is favourite 3. By E. In addition, betting with the Kelly Criterion may occasionally be worse than constant betting even after several thousand bets. Featured Horse Racing. RaceQuant is a startup specializing in consulting for horse race betting. Completely Free Football Bet: Editor best bets including 18/1 Acca and 26/1 Bet Builder. 20 or 20%. where f is the fraction of the bank to stake; b is the odds for the bet (“b to 1”); p is the probability of winning; q is the probability of losi…How does the Kelly criterion calculator work? By entering your bankroll, the odds and your estimated probability of winning, the Kelly Criterion calculator will tell you how much. How big a buy-in should you be willing to pay? Suppose you're horse racing, and you think that 2 of the horses are priced wrong, how much should you bet on each?. The formula has a number of applications, one of which is sports betting. The formula was derived by J. This means that the bettor should wager 20% of their bankroll on Liverpool to win. Horse Racing Tips: Let's have a disco in Wales with Ffos Las Sunday double; Horse Racing Tips and Predictions Auteuil Racing Tips: Native's stamina the key to first Grade 1 success; Horse Racing. You must scale the Kelly output so that the amount you bet is equal to the potential loss. The multiplier is normally set to 50%, for an aggressive betting strategy set it to 100%. Choose your own Horse Racing bet to boost by claiming a MyOddsboost token. Regarding traditional betting against bookmakers, on sports and horse racing, there is a lot of mythology and not much hard data on long-term success of professional gamblers.